MLB playoff strategy is different than during the regular season. Suddenly, bunts matter, suddenly moving a runner over matters as much as getting a hit. Suddenly, getting the lead first is even more critical than during the regular season.
The undiscussed stat I think is critical for the MLB playoffs is putting the team's best hitter at reaching 2nd base on their own via a double, or, a walk and stolen base, in the lead off spot.
The top three batters in the 2024 playoffs who lead in number of times reaching 2nd base on their own, during the regular season, are Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor. Ohtani and Lindor lead off, Ramirez bats 3rd for the Guardians.
Former Cleveland GuardIndian Francisco Lindor just proved how valuable he has been to the Mets from the lead off spot in the final game of the Mets versus Milwaukee 3 game wildcard series. Lindor was the the only player with a hit, and he had 2. Going into the 9th inning, the Mets were trailing 2-0. It was Francisco Lindor's lead off 8 pitch, 9th inning walk, that changed the timbre of the game.
Getting on base set the tone for the rest of the inning, getting on base while battling for 8 pitches empowered his teammates. People will only remember Alonso's 3 run, ninth inning home run; but maybe Alonso never even bats if Lindor had struck out on the 3-2 check swing that allowed Lindor to take first base via the walk.
For the Cleveland Guardians, Jose Ramirez, who primarily batted 3rd during the regular season, should lead off for the Guardians in the playoffs for a variety of reasons.
Since the 2024 All Star Break, Ramirez has a .350 OBP, the next closest batter, ironically benefited from batting in front of Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo, had a .333 OBP in limited at bats. After Manzardo, the next batters OBP since the 2024 All Star Break is .311
It is essential to have Jose on base so the number 2, and 3 hitters see more fastballs. It is also an excellent opportunity for Jose to take advantage of a still warming up pitcher by batting first in the first inning.
The bottom of the order may benefit from having Jose on Deck and may also see more predictable pitching. Jose's base stealing threat also forces the pitcher into the stretch so early in the game, the ability to score in the first inning, should be enhanced. Which can lead to the hoped for getting the lead first and never relinquishing because of the solid bullpen the Guardians have.
Normally, the logical lead off batter would be Steven Kwan. But Kwan's post All Star season was disrupted by a back issue. I don't want to see Kwan stealing since he did have a pre All Star Break hamstring injury that kept Kwan sidelined for a month.
Bottom line is, I'd rather see Kwan batting with Ramirez on base, then hoping Kwan gets on base for a Jose Ramirez at bat. Ultimately, Kwan, Manzardo, and Josh Naylor, and bottom of the line-up Roccio may all benefit from placing Jose Ramirez in the lead off spot.
Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.
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