Are the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers really planning on not trying to give themselves the best chance to win the final game of the 2025 Season because of 2D Analytics?

Why does everyone believe the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers will save their best starter for playoff game 1? 

Three PLAYOFF HOME GAMES will be at stake for the final Guardians home game of the regular season! 

Who cares about who starts game 1 of the playoffs if the alternative is to LOSE the HOSTING of 3 Home Playoff Games! 

Whomever has 3 Home Playoff games because they won the division will have a dramatic advantage over the visting wild card team who would then have ZERO Home Playoff games in the first round. Playoff Home field advantage is the greatest in the wild card round when compared to the next round of the playoff Series because of the disparity between a 3 Home Playoff Game versus 0 Home Playoff Games for the opposing team.

I would NEVER trade 3 PLAYOFF HOME GAMES so a team's best starter can start game 1 of 3 of an away 3 game playoff series. 

According to Google AI, The benefits to playing all 3 Playoff Home Games from the wildcard round are the following...

Host team's advantage: As the host of the first two games, a team guarantees its share of this revenue. If the series goes to a third and decisive game, the home team keeps the entire gate revenue (minus the Commissioner's 15% cut). 

Revenue stream: Local sales

The biggest financial advantage for the home team comes from retaining all revenue generated from in-stadium concessions, parking, and merchandise sales during all home playoff games. For a best-of-three series, this revenue comes from hosting at least two games and potentially a third. The visiting team receives none of this. 

 

Added long-term revenue

Hosting playoff games also provides less direct but still lucrative benefits:

• Merchandise sales: A successful playoff run with home games can boost merchandise sales, as fan excitement is at a high.
• Increased interest: The added exposure and excitement can lead to increased season ticket sales and corporate sponsorship renewals for the following season. 

What Google did not mention, the local economy receives a huge economic boost as 35,000 fans may make a day and night of attending and being near the ballpark, frequenting local landmarks and restaurants both before, and after the home playoff game. 

Also, the national exposure via beautifully photographed daytime and nightime vistas of the Cleveland City and local hot spots throughout the first round home playoff games cannot be overlooked. 

The home playoff games can even help the local business community by having their google rankings increase from the articles that are written about Cleveland during the first round of the playoffs, and the discussion of Cleveland during the Playoff games should not be overlooked.

The overall combined total financial impact for Cleveland the city, and The Cleveland Guardians is most likely in the 5 million to 10 million dollar range per wildcard playoff game. 

Not optimizing the starting pitching rotation to win the final game of the 2025 Season so the Guardians best starter can start game one in the playoffs in what could end up being an away game, could cost the Cleveland area and Cleveland Franchise, 15 million to 30 million dollars in local revenue over a 3 game series, and, could result in a higher chance of losing the 3 game playoff series by being the visiting team for all 3 games, thus missing out on the next round of the playoff series and the additional 2 or 3 Home games.

If the Guardians decide to prioritize the first game of the 3 game Wildcard Series over winning the final game of the Regular Season, and end up playing 3 away playoff games to win the Playoff Series against the Tigers; 2nd round analytics point to the Guardians playing the first two games of the next playoff round, on the road, for a total of Five Consecutive Away Playoff games, because 2d Analytics convinced the Guardians to chose to not use their best Starter for the final game of the Regular Season; this potential disaster awaits the Guardians if they choose to delay using their best Starter until the first game of the Wildcard Playoff Series. 

Sometimes 2d math analytics are a poor alternative when compared to a 3d Analytics perspective. 

However, it should be pointed out that if the Guardians gamble pays off, and the Guardians win the final game of the 2025 regular seaosn using a different starter, they would actually have the best of all worlds. However, if the Guardians do not see that not starting their best Starter for the final game of 2025 Regular Season is overall a risky strategy move, then 2d analytics have indeed blinded them to their best path forward when all scenarios are considered.