Jose Ramirez should lead off for the 2024 Playoff bound Cleveland Guardians, here's why.

MLB playoff strategy is different than during the regular season. Suddenly, bunts matter, suddenly moving a runner over matters as much as getting a hit. Suddenly, getting the lead first is even more critical than during the regular season.

The undiscussed stat I think is critical for the MLB playoffs is putting the team's best hitter at reaching 2nd base on their own via a double, or, a walk and stolen base, in the lead off spot.

The top three batters in the 2024 playoffs who lead in number of times reaching 2nd base on their own, during the regular season, are Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor. Ohtani and Lindor lead off, Ramirez bats 3rd for the Guardians.

Former Cleveland GuardIndian Francisco Lindor just proved how valuable he has been to the Mets from the lead off spot in the final game of the Mets versus Milwaukee 3 game wildcard series. Lindor was the the only player with a hit, and he had 2. Going into the 9th inning, the Mets were trailing 2-0. It was Francisco Lindor's lead off 8 pitch, 9th inning walk, that changed the timbre of the game.

Getting on base set the tone for the rest of the inning, getting on base while battling for 8 pitches empowered his teammates. People will only remember Alonso's 3 run, ninth inning home run; but maybe Alonso never even bats if Lindor had struck out on the 3-2 check swing that allowed Lindor to take first base via the walk.

For the Cleveland Guardians, Jose Ramirez, who primarily batted 3rd during the regular season, should lead off for the Guardians in the playoffs for a variety of reasons.

Since the 2024 All Star Break, Ramirez has a .350 OBP, the next closest batter, ironically benefited from batting in front of Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo, had a .333 OBP in limited at bats. After Manzardo, the next batters OBP since the 2024 All Star Break is .311

It is essential to have Jose on base so the number 2, and 3 hitters see more fastballs. It is also an excellent opportunity for Jose to take advantage of a still warming up pitcher by batting first in the first inning.

The bottom of the order may benefit from having Jose on Deck and may also see more predictable pitching. Jose's base stealing threat also forces the pitcher into the stretch so early in the game, the ability to score in the first inning, should be enhanced. Which can lead to the hoped for getting the lead first and never relinquishing because of the solid bullpen the Guardians have.

Normally, the logical lead off batter would be Steven Kwan. But Kwan's post All Star season was disrupted by a back issue. I don't want to see Kwan stealing since he did have a pre All Star Break hamstring injury that kept Kwan sidelined for a month.

Bottom line is, I'd rather see Kwan batting with Ramirez on base, then hoping Kwan gets on base for a Jose Ramirez at bat. Ultimately, Kwan, Manzardo, and Josh Naylor, and bottom of the line-up Roccio may all benefit from placing Jose Ramirez in the lead off spot.

 

Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.

Revisting 2 prescient articles written by Alessandro Machi of Sportscam Detective in December of 2022 regarding Steven Kwan, and Michael Brantley.

This article

and this article,

 

are the kind of articles that allow me to be grateful for being an independent thinker who has never been paid for an article. My Steven Kwan article, if followed, would have saved the Guardians 50 to 100 million dollars long term if they had never signed Josh Bell to a 32 million dollar deal, and had instead invested in Steven Kwan's long term future as a Guardian after his first gold glove season. 

My other article about Michael Brantley displays my other talent, connecting dots. I pointed out that Michael Brantley signed a Grady Sizemore number of at bat incentive style of contract that is the WORST kind of contract for an established veteran coming back from an injury to sign. 

Sure enough, 2023 would be Brantley's final season in baseball. I don't follow the Astro's closely enough to know if Brantley either came back too soon in 2023, or, early on realized he signed a bad contract and lost interest in baseball as a result. Brantley did say he wanted to spend time with his kids, so he has a built in alternative reason. Yet the case can be made that incentivizing at bat thresholds for an established veteran athlete coming back from an injury is insulting, and ineffective.

One need not look farther than the amazing year that David Fry is having in 2024 while having one half the at bats of an everyday player, to see that incentivizing number of at bats matters less than the quality of at bats. 

 

 

 

Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.

David Fry's first two seasons in Cleveland are statistically identical, except for one big difference.

 David Fry's 2 years as a Cleveland Guardian.

 

(Image credit Baseball Reference)

What is thoroughly statistically fascinating about comparing David Fry's 2023 statistics to 2024 is how virtually identical the plate appearances, stolen bases, doubles, home runs and RBI's are, yet the overall stats show a remarkable improvement that 5 extra singles are not enough to increase OPS by .333. 

The reason the similarity between 2023 to 2024 is so fascinating is when one looks at batting average, OBP, Slugging, and OPS, how radically improved David Fry's 2024 year is from 2023 (and 2023 was solid for a first year player who never played regularly). What is the missing statistical ingredient?

The missing ingredient is a remarkable improvement in walks to strikeouts ratio. In 2023, Fry had 8 walks and 30 strikeouts. In 2024, Fry has 19 walks and 22 strikeouts. When multiplied by a factor of five to equal a 550 at bat season, this translates into a gain of 50 walks.

Never have I viewed a stat comparison example that clearly and concisely shows how an improvement in the walks vs strikeouts category while every other statistic is basically identical (except for the 5 extra singles in 2024); can produce such a lopsided offensive statistical improvement. 

Simply reducing 30 strikeouts to 22 strikeouts while increasing 8 walks to 18 walks in barely over 100 at bats literally creates a .333 increase in OPS, enough to raise a batter's statistics anywhere from 50% to 80% when compared to all Major League Batters, and all it took was increasing one's walk total by 50 over 550 at bats.

 

 

Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.

Comparing the top paid player between the Cleveland Browns, Cleveland Guardians, and Cleveland Cavaliers.

When I compare the top paid player for the Cleveland Browns, Cleveland Guardians, and Cleveland Cavaliers, only 1 of the 3 warms my heart.

DeShaun Watson was traded for and the price was very high, both in draft picks and also in salary, and the longevity of the contract was basically for 4 and 1/3 years.

Donovan Mitchell apparently is biding his time until he becomes a free agent so he can go to the New York Knicks or maybe the Los Angeles Lakers. Trading for Mitchell also required giving up several first round picks and a bunch of talent in the other direction that has flourished.

And then there is Jose Ramirez. Jose signed a solid deal, probably left 25% to 30% on the table by not having his services bid on by multiple teams, and no players were traded to keep him.

I hope both Guardians fans AND Guardians ownership respect Jose's window of greatness and try and create a World Series push while Jose is in his prime. This push wold require trying to get Josh Naylor to back up Jose, with the hope that other young talent matures quickly enough to put a solid offense and defense on the field. 

Here's wishing Shane Bieber also goes along with the plan.

Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.

Cleveland Browns 2023 season ends, planning for 2024 begins, Browns have a secret weapon for 2024.

Before discussing the Cleveland Browns 2024 strategies, a quick review of the Cleveland Browns vs Houston January 13, 2024 playoff game is in order. While Houston totally dominated the 2nd half, there was a play in the first half that seemed to change the flow of the game. An obvious pass interference call against Houston was not called, Flacco even looked up to the review booth and waited for a review that never came. Browns punted, and what was a 17-14 game was suddenly 24-14 in favor of Houston when both teams had been trading scores prior to this strangely ignored and unreviewed pass interference call.

Flacco has a desperate gear he will invoke when the game looks dangerously close to being lost. We saw it in the game where the Browns rallied and would have tied the score with about 5 minutes left in the game except the extra point was missed. What would have been a tie turned into Flacco throwing a desperation interception on the next possession trying to get the game tied again.

We basically witnessed the same situation once that pass interference call was not called. However, it should also be noted not having Nick Chubb finally caught up with the Browns, as did not having their best secondary defender available, and Amarie Cooper not 100% for this game, all of these key losses made a difference. 

However, there is something the Browns could do for next season to notch up their offense a gear. I'd like to see Dorian Thompson Robinson line up from the running back spot every so often. I think DTR in the backfield along with a second running back might have wreaked havoc against the Texans defense. Although DTR is going to need to put on some muscle this off season so he can be tackled when he does decide to run without fear of injury.

Flacco pitching, or not pitching the football to DTR still allows for all kinds of creative offensive options which most likely would have opened up the running game to go along with what still was an effective wide receiving game. Instead, once the running game was shut down, Flacco managed to squeeze one pass between 3 Houston Defenders, but soon after there were TWO, not one one, but TWO interceptions for touchdowns by Houston Defenders which probably does not happen if the Pass interference call had been called, or if DTR was available to play and play out of the backfield as a second pass and run option as a way to freeze the Houston Defense in the 2nd half.

Early in the season I had suggested using DTR as a gadgets play QB for specific situations and the Browns ended up trying this strategy a couple of times. I regret it took watching this playoff game loss to realize DTR in the backfield every now and then could be a potent offensive strategy to invoke whenever the running game is thwarted.

I wish Flacco could be brought back as a second option, with DTR in the backfield part of the time, for whenever Deshaun Watson needs a break. The idea of the 16 game QB has for the most part become a myth. Having a second option at QB that also uses 2 QB's from time to time could be the elixer that helps keep everyone healthy for a possible 2024 playoff run. I don't understand the QB eligibilty rule, but I have heard that teams can only have 2 QB's available per game, if that is true, I think it is time to change that rule. However, DTR could always be listed as a running back as a way around only being allowed to use 2 QB's per game.

Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.