How the Cleveland Guardians misguidedly "respected" Amed Rosario out of Cleveland, who now appears to be thriving with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

August 6, 2023 9:34 pm update. Twitter update on Amed Rosario getting 9 RBI's in his first 8 games as a Los Angeles Guardian.  end of update.

As a Cleveland Guardians fan, I have voiced my reservations about how Amed Rosario was used in Cleveland, REPEATEDLY, VOCIFEROUSLY, and on numerous occasions on a Cleveland Guardians Facebook forum.

My two primary concerns were, Amed Rosario might be better suited for second base rather than shortstop, and due to Amed Rosario's high hit count and low walk rate, should have been batting anywhere from 4th to 6th in the line-up.

Once Amed Rosario settled into the two spot around the middle of April 2022, he was never tried anywhere else in the line-up. 

A term I have come up with, OBP spread, denotes the amount of points separation between a Batting Average and On Base Percentage, pointed to Amed Rosario batting further down the line-up because his OBP spread was too low to be batting second in the line-up. A low OBP spread means a player gets more hits and less walks than the average MLB hitter.

Based on the premise that scoring in the first inning is critical to winning more often, a greater OBP spread means the batter is getting more walks. A first inning walk from the first or second batter in the line-up is an excellent way to set up the first inning for the 3,4, and 5 batters. Batters who don't walk much are basically wasting their only hit of the game if they get that hit as the first or second batter of the game when a walk would basically serve the same purpose. In 2022, Rosario's proclivity to make contact and not walk led to Rosario having more more GIDP's (19) than walks (17) when Rosario batted second. The GIDP more than walks stat is a serious tactical issue since the runner on base being doubled up was a fast runner with base stealing capabilities. 

As Rosario's offensive stats accrued, it became oddly clear that the sight of a base runner on first trying to steal second resulted in Amed Rosario swinging to "protect" the runner even when it appeared the runner had second base stolen due to a great jump. So while Rosario's offensive stats with a runner on first were below average, Rosario's batting average with runners on first and second, second and third, second, or third, were all higher, in some instances a hundred points higher than when a runner was just on first base. 

Questions that may never be answered include, Why were the Guardians reluctant to see if Rosario, and his high hit count, high GIDP, and low walk total might work better further down in the line-up when the odds of runners on second, or second and third, were more likely, and the odds that there might already be two outs, would possibly mean no increase and even a decrease in the number of GIDPs by Rosario as compared to batting second, while providing Rosario with more RBI opportunities.

Another question, Why wasn't Rosario tried at second base since it was known that Andres Gimenez was terrific at both second base and shortstop whereas Rosario was not seen as being as good defensively at shortstop as Gimenez? Perhaps Rosario's speed would better translate at second base.

Was the desire to keep Rosario intractably locked in at shortstop, and second in the line-up, due to Rosario's close friendship with Jose Ramirez? My theory is the Guardians wanted to show Amed Rosario 'respect' by locking him into the second spot in the line-up, and locked in to shortstop next to Jose Ramirez, even if it was not the ideal scenario for maximizing Rosario's abilities.

In less than a weeks worth of games for the Dodgers, Rosario has hit in multiple spots in the line-up, and is even playing at second base. Rosario's offense overall has been a boost for the Dodgers as the Dodgers have probably realized Rosario's high hit / low walks output plays better later in the line-up rather than in the second spot. 

It appears the Cleveland Guardians "respect" for Amed Rosario in Cleveland led to average results, but has caused his value to spike the moment he became a Dodger and was suddenly free to play multiple positions and hit later in the line-up. Perhaps locking a player into one position and one spot in the line-up can become a misguided form of respect when the player's contributions are not being maximized.

 

 

Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.