Are the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers really planning on not trying to give themselves the best chance to win the final game of the 2025 Season because of 2D Analytics?

Why does everyone believe the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers will save their best starter for playoff game 1? 

Three PLAYOFF HOME GAMES will be at stake for the final Guardians home game of the regular season! 

Who cares about who starts game 1 of the playoffs if the alternative is to LOSE the HOSTING of 3 Home Playoff Games! 

Whomever has 3 Home Playoff games because they won the division will have a dramatic advantage over the visting wild card team who would then have ZERO Home Playoff games in the first round. Playoff Home field advantage is the greatest in the wild card round when compared to the next round of the playoff Series because of the disparity between a 3 Home Playoff Game versus 0 Home Playoff Games for the opposing team.

I would NEVER trade 3 PLAYOFF HOME GAMES so a team's best starter can start game 1 of 3 of an away 3 game playoff series. 

According to Google AI, The benefits to playing all 3 Playoff Home Games from the wildcard round are the following...

Host team's advantage: As the host of the first two games, a team guarantees its share of this revenue. If the series goes to a third and decisive game, the home team keeps the entire gate revenue (minus the Commissioner's 15% cut). 

Revenue stream: Local sales

The biggest financial advantage for the home team comes from retaining all revenue generated from in-stadium concessions, parking, and merchandise sales during all home playoff games. For a best-of-three series, this revenue comes from hosting at least two games and potentially a third. The visiting team receives none of this. 

 

Added long-term revenue

Hosting playoff games also provides less direct but still lucrative benefits:

• Merchandise sales: A successful playoff run with home games can boost merchandise sales, as fan excitement is at a high.
• Increased interest: The added exposure and excitement can lead to increased season ticket sales and corporate sponsorship renewals for the following season. 

What Google did not mention, the local economy receives a huge economic boost as 35,000 fans may make a day and night of attending and being near the ballpark, frequenting local landmarks and restaurants both before, and after the home playoff game. 

Also, the national exposure via beautifully photographed daytime and nightime vistas of the Cleveland City and local hot spots throughout the first round home playoff games cannot be overlooked. 

The home playoff games can even help the local business community by having their google rankings increase from the articles that are written about Cleveland during the first round of the playoffs, and the discussion of Cleveland during the Playoff games should not be overlooked.

The overall combined total financial impact for Cleveland the city, and The Cleveland Guardians is most likely in the 5 million to 10 million dollar range per wildcard playoff game. 

Not optimizing the starting pitching rotation to win the final game of the 2025 Season so the Guardians best starter can start game one in the playoffs in what could end up being an away game, could cost the Cleveland area and Cleveland Franchise, 15 million to 30 million dollars in local revenue over a 3 game series, and, could result in a higher chance of losing the 3 game playoff series by being the visiting team for all 3 games, thus missing out on the next round of the playoff series and the additional 2 or 3 Home games.

If the Guardians decide to prioritize the first game of the 3 game Wildcard Series over winning the final game of the Regular Season, and end up playing 3 away playoff games to win the Playoff Series against the Tigers; 2nd round analytics point to the Guardians playing the first two games of the next playoff round, on the road, for a total of Five Consecutive Away Playoff games, because 2d Analytics convinced the Guardians to chose to not use their best Starter for the final game of the Regular Season; this potential disaster awaits the Guardians if they choose to delay using their best Starter until the first game of the Wildcard Playoff Series. 

Sometimes 2d math analytics are a poor alternative when compared to a 3d Analytics perspective. 

However, it should be pointed out that if the Guardians gamble pays off, and the Guardians win the final game of the 2025 regular seaosn using a different starter, they would actually have the best of all worlds. However, if the Guardians do not see that not starting their best Starter for the final game of 2025 Regular Season is overall a risky strategy move, then 2d analytics have indeed blinded them to their best path forward when all scenarios are considered.

Sunday, September 28, 2025 Update. This is an added observation after one inning of the Sunday final game has been played with the Guardians leading 2-0. I neglected to mention that the Guardians just had an MLB near record tying run of 19 consecutive games in which the Guardians starters gave up 2 runs, or less, missing tying the all time mark by just one game while tying the 2019 Tampa Bay Rays for second longest 2 runs or less by the starting pitching streak. In the world of analytics, Such an extended streak of fine starting pitching may have played a role in the Guardians not using the team's number one starter to increase the likelihood The Guardians host the first round of the Playoff Series. Rangers just tied the score 2-2 in the second inning, Not sure why JR is in right field instead of at DH or first base. End of Sunday, September 28, 2025 Update.

ABS Automatic Balls Strikes system is coming to MLB in 2026 replete with unmentioned caveats.

The Major League Baseball announcement of the 2026 ABS system being implemented in Major League baseball, has a flaw that may require additional think tanking to resolve.

1. The ball is obviously much larger than the edges of the strike zone, and, the ball is portrayed as a 3D object. Is it wise to automatically call a ball that nicks the ABS 2D strike zone, a strike, if 90% of the ball is actually outside of the strike zone? 
2. When ABS displays a graphic of where the pitched ball is in relation to the strike zone, the ball has a 3D look to it, but the strike zone image is 2d, meaning it's not a 3D image that shows if the pitch is traveling inward towards the center of the plate, or if the pitch is heading away and outside from the plate, as it crosses home plate.  
3. What if the ABS strike zone was 3D, and the ball would have to travel within the 3D zone for a certain percentage of the 3D total strike zone distance to qualify as a strike, and if the pitch was leaking off of the plate, or traveling inward into the strike zone, then the total distance traveled within the 3d strike zone would create more accurate parameters regarding if the pitch was actually a strike, or not.
4. Is a perfectly rectangular strike zone the ideal shape for ABS? Perhaps the Strike zone should have a very gentle sideways egg or oval curve shape to it?
5. Conclusion, the ABS 2D strike zone graphic is insufficient as it is presently constructed. 

 

Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.

MLB should add a Fielding Demonstration competition to their All Star Game Weekend in tribute to Steven Kwan.

After watching Steven Kwan's run saving catch against the Detroit Tigers during their September 17, 2025 game, and hearing the Cleveland Guardians announcers mention Steven Kwan reached 29 feet per second, why not have a speed test at the MLB All Star Break to see how fast an outfielder can run in pursuit of a flyball. And, what about a relay throw contest for speed and accuracy, outfielder retrieves ball, throws to infielder, infielder to catcher, fastest time wins, this contest would enable teammates to be part of the contest even if they themselves are not an All Star.

Kwan runs 29 feet per second to track down what would have been a run scoring double during September 17, 2025 Game Against the Detroit Tigers.

 

 

 Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.