Revisting 2 prescient articles written by Alessandro Machi of Sportscam Detective in December of 2022 regarding Steven Kwan, and Michael Brantley.

This article

and this article,

 

are the kind of articles that allow me to be grateful for being an independent thinker who has never been paid for an article. My Steven Kwan article, if followed, would have saved the Guardians 50 to 100 million dollars long term if they had never signed Josh Bell to a 32 million dollar deal, and had instead invested in Steven Kwan's long term future as a Guardian after his first gold glove season. 

My other article about Michael Brantley displays my other talent, connecting dots. I pointed out that Michael Brantley signed a Grady Sizemore number of at bat incentive style of contract that is the WORST kind of contract for an established veteran coming back from an injury to sign. 

Sure enough, 2023 would be Brantley's final season in baseball. I don't follow the Astro's closely enough to know if Brantley either came back too soon in 2023, or, early on realized he signed a bad contract and lost interest in baseball as a result. Brantley did say he wanted to spend time with his kids, so he has a built in alternative reason. Yet the case can be made that incentivizing at bat thresholds for an established veteran athlete coming back from an injury is insulting, and ineffective.

One need not look farther than the amazing year that David Fry is having in 2024 while having one half the at bats of an everyday player, to see that incentivizing number of at bats matters less than the quality of at bats. 

 

 

 

Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.

David Fry's first two seasons in Cleveland are statistically identical, except for one big difference.

 David Fry's 2 years as a Cleveland Guardian.

 

(Image credit Baseball Reference)

What is thoroughly statistically fascinating about comparing David Fry's 2023 statistics to 2024 is how virtually identical the plate appearances, stolen bases, doubles, home runs and RBI's are, yet the overall stats show a remarkable improvement that 5 extra singles are not enough to increase OPS by .333. 

The reason the similarity between 2023 to 2024 is so fascinating is when one looks at batting average, OBP, Slugging, and OPS, how radically improved David Fry's 2024 year is from 2023 (and 2023 was solid for a first year player who never played regularly). What is the missing statistical ingredient?

The missing ingredient is a remarkable improvement in walks to strikeouts ratio. In 2023, Fry had 8 walks and 30 strikeouts. In 2024, Fry has 19 walks and 22 strikeouts. When multiplied by a factor of five to equal a 550 at bat season, this translates into a gain of 50 walks.

Never have I viewed a stat comparison example that clearly and concisely shows how an improvement in the walks vs strikeouts category while every other statistic is basically identical (except for the 5 extra singles in 2024); can produce such a lopsided offensive statistical improvement. 

Simply reducing 30 strikeouts to 22 strikeouts while increasing 8 walks to 18 walks in barely over 100 at bats literally creates a .333 increase in OPS, enough to raise a batter's statistics anywhere from 50% to 80% when compared to all Major League Batters, and all it took was increasing one's walk total by 50 over 550 at bats.

 

 

Los Angeles Emmy winning Producer Alessandro Machi combines his editing, camera and observational skills to provide unique insights into the World of Sports.